Monday, 9 January 2012

ZenithOptimedia NZ - Blog - ZenithOptimedia 2012 media predictions for New Zealand

1.  The market will be resilient

Overall it is positive as the advertising market will remain flat against 2011.

A few things to keep in mind though:

  • We had strong advertising revenue in 2011 with many brands re-entering the market with global money due to the Rugby World Cup and;
  • then Election advertising straight afterwards. 

Therefore apart from event advertising, the overall activity should be stronger in 2012. It is also an Olympic year however broadcast times are not friendly to the average Kiwi being in London so it will not impact as much as RWC.

In terms of media share, the big winners will be online growing by at least 15% to around $380 million and TV growing 3% to $656 million. The biggest loser will be newspapers where the bulk of the share will come from but we will wait and see.

2.  TV Ratings will change the way we consider TV advertising

The big change this year is time shifted viewing ratings (as well as a panel refresh).The new ratings will have 24 hour or daily ratings and weekly ratings. 24 hour ratings will record viewership to 2am in the morning and report the next day. Therefore, if a panelist watches a show live or records it and watches it say half an hour later, the ratings will be counted in that day. Weekly ratings means that if the show is recorded and watched later that week, it will get a ratings for the week as well. To get get total viewership for a show we would have to combine both sets of ratings. 

The first thing to watch out for is a lift in Mediaworks ratings. This is most likely because their shows are likely to be taped and watch later (we believe).

The second thing we will see is an uplift in SKY ratings because their viewers have been under represented on the panel for some time now so expect a lift in their ratings.

The third thing to watch out for is which shows will be watched live and which will be recorded to be watched later in the week as this will impact the timeliness of the messages placed in the shows. Obviously retail advertiser need to watch out here!

To summarise: Mediaworks to gain on TVNZ, SKY to see a lift and timeliness of message to be recognised as time shift viewing brings a new dimension to ratings.

3.  Audience On Demand

2012 will really see the arrival of the Ad Exchange in New Zealand. If your agency has not got one, you need to seriously ask yourself if you are with the right team! What are Ad Exchanges I hear you ask?  

Ad exchanges are technology platforms that facilitate the bidded buying and selling of online media (similar to search) advertising inventory from multiple ad networks. The approach is technology-driven as opposed to the historical approach of negotiating price on media inventory. For more info check out the Wiki.

This is the new horizon in advertising and it is here today so get your head around it quickly to be beat your competitors.

4.  Online video

Kiwis have an appetite for speed, fast internet that is, now they have tasted it! With that increased speed of broadband in the home we will see richer and richer content being viewed online. That means more video. Local media organisations such as Fairfax are aggressively gearing up their content teams to deliver more and more video across their media platforms. If you are advertising on TV and you are not running your ads online as well where you have even more control, are you missing a trick?

5.  Search, search, search

Think about your consumer, think about your product and get it together.

6. Mobile

Every year has been promised to be the year of the mobile for as long as I can remember. We hang onto your hats people because that was last year for consumers. 40% plus of Kiwis will have a smart phone by the end of this year so be ready. Providers are ling up to enter the New Zealand market such as:

  • Big Mobile - Premium mobile network out of Australia
  • Admob - Google's solution
  • InMobi - a bunch of ex Google guys out of India who are pushing hard here (offering free production)

You need to at least have addressed your approach to mobile whether it is a trial or a full blown commitment to the space - the game is on in 2012.

7. Facebook will evolve

Q1 this year should see the biggest public listing ever for Facebook tipped at $US90 billion! With the pressue of shareholders expect Facebook to push their barrow really hard this year to drive revenue growth. New product will arrive, some of it good, some of it experimental. Facebook can do great things for brands but can also create a noose that tightens slowly for some businesses. Consideration to what the commercial impact your participation on Facebook will have as it can be great but also can be hardwork!

That's enough for today - more to come this week!


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